Tim J Smith

Margins result from pricing decisions, so the key question is whether a company has a sound pricing process and understands its flaws and value. They exclude companies whose offerings are priced by financial markets or set by government fiat, and say the point applies to most companies in monopolistically competitive markets.

The post asks executives whether they have a sound pricing decision-making process and understand both its flaws and its value.

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Pricing, they say, holds promotions, brand management, and sales negotiations together so they do not distort the outcome. Their critique is not that Nike's managers make bad decisions, but that the company would benefit from investing more in pricing capability.

The post estimates that, holding everything else constant, a 1% price improvement could mean a $12.5 billion increase in Nike's market capitalization.

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The post points to a Pricing Spineometer review of Robert Half and offers a four-day Price Management Maturity and Gap Analysis to identify pricing capability gaps. Ask to see the review to assess its findings.

The Robert Half review is presented as a way to assess a company's pricing capability for signals about future performance.

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A supply disruption can push prices up through input costs, they argue, and elasticity offers a way to size the move. They apply short-run oil demand elasticity of about -0.05 and long-run elasticity of about -0.3 to a Strait of Hormuz closure scenario.

Smith says a 20% oil supply reduction could raise prices about 400% in the short run and about 67% in the long run, implying roughly $133 to $400 per barrel from a pre-war price near $80. They compare this with copper rising from $9,000 per metric tonne in January 2025 to $14,500 in March 2026 after mine closures in Indonesia, Chile, and Congo.

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Ask what alternative they propose; the post names the topic and venue but does not explain it.

The post asks, 'What is the alternative to billable hours?' and points to a talk on structuring service pricing.

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They describe themself as a forced entrepreneur who searched for a job for 12 months after graduating from Booth Chicago and got no traction.

• They prefer to make Wiglaf a success while researching, writing a Pricing Spineometer series, writing another book, teaching part-time at DePaul, and speaking at conferences.
• The post names the clients they want: companies with roughly $50 million to $500 million in revenue, their CFOs, or smaller pricing projects.

Smith reports improving profit on a $75 million product line by an additional $60 million through the NPD process, and improving profit at a $30 million distributor by $1.8 million while working with the commercial team. The results are self-reported in the post.

Smith considered a corporate job search, then recommitted to Wiglaf.

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The Pricing Spineometer series appears in the career post and the Robert Half announcement; they also teach part-time at DePaul and speak at conferences. Wiglaf Pricing Third Thursdays is presented as an event where CFOs listen, ask questions, and discuss current market conditions with an economist and pricing professor.

The March 19, 2026 Third Thursdays post invites CFOs to discuss adjusting pricing for higher oil, chemical, and copper prices, and addressing affordability and market share profitably.

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A newcomer who wants to know what a fractional pricing advisor actually does day to day should start here.

Smith describes running a pricing consulting company for more than 20 years and briefly considering, then rejecting, a corporate job.

• They say they were a "forced entrepreneur": after graduating from Booth Chicago, they searched for a job for 12 months without traction.
• Now they prefer to keep building Wiglaf while researching, writing a Pricing Spineometer series and another book, teaching part-time at DePaul, and speaking at conferences.
• They cite two results: an additional $60M profit on a $75M product line working through the NPD process, and $1.8M profit improvement at a $30M distributor working with the commercial team.
• They’re looking for companies with roughly $50M to $500M in revenue, or their CFOs, as well as smaller one-off pricing projects.

For brands planning a campaign

Use this post to scope a fractional engagement: it gives the revenue band they target, the executive buyer they address (CFO), and two quantified outcomes you can ask them to walk through. It’s also the natural place to ask how they balance part-time teaching, writing, and consulting across their available time.

It shows how they make a pricing argument a finance audience can follow and check.

Smith builds a forecast around the Strait of Hormuz, noting that 20% of the world's oil supply passes through it.

• Using short-run price elasticity of demand of about -0.05, they argue that a 20% supply reduction would push oil up roughly 400% in the short run.
• With long-run elasticity of about -0.3, they argue for a roughly 67% rise over the longer term, giving a range of about $133 to $400 per barrel from a pre-war price near $80.
• They point to copper as a parallel, moving from $9,000 per metric tonne in January 2025 to $14,500 per metric tonne in March 2026 after mine closures in Indonesia, Chile, and Congo.
• They tell CFOs, FP&A teams, and VP Pricing to prepare for a supply shock that forces prices up while hoping it is avoided.

For brands planning a campaign

A useful sample to send to a finance-side sponsor concerned that pricing advice will be vague. It shows Smith reasoning from elasticities and commodity data, and offers a concrete scenario to ask them to adapt to your input costs.

It explains what they mean by "pricing capability" rather than leaving it as a slogan.

Smith argues that at Nike, pricing decisions are scattered across merchandising, product development, branding, selling, finance, supply chain, operations, and even legal, and asks who coordinates them.

• They describe pricing as the glue that enables discipline across an organization, warning that uncoordinated promotions, brand management, and sales negotiation can distort the outcome.
• They stress that they are not saying Nike's managers are making bad decisions, but that the company needs to invest more in pricing capability.
• They add a scale claim: holding everything else constant, a 1% improvement in price could mean a $12.5 billion improvement in market capitalization.

For brands planning a campaign

Use this argument when a prospect says pricing already sits with sales or finance. It also shows Smith critiquing a named company while stating the limits of their view—relevant if you want a public-facing spokesperson rather than a discreet behind-the-scenes advisor.

It shows what they would push back on in a pricing meeting.

Writing to a CEO, CFO, and CMO, Smith says margin goals do not set prices.

• In their framing, margins result from pricing decision-making rather than serve as its input.
• A company should ask whether its pricing decision process is good and whether it understands both the process's flaws and its usefulness.
• They carve out an exception for companies whose offerings are priced by financial markets or set by government fiat, and say the point applies to the majority of companies competing in monopolistic competitive markets.

For brands planning a campaign

Expect Smith to open with a finance-led client by questioning margin-target-driven pricing and examining the decision process. This helps set expectations before a workshop and test whether your internal stakeholders will accept the approach.

It explains what the series is and how they connect public analysis to a paid diagnostic.

Smith says that when revenue is down, margins are pressured, and AI is reshaping professional services, price management becomes a board-level issue. They say their latest Pricing Spineometer review examines Robert Half and what its pricing capability may reveal about future performance, and invite readers to message them about a four-day Price Management Maturity and Gap Analysis.

For brands planning a campaign

The post points to an ongoing published series and a defined four-day diagnostic offer. Ask for the full reviews before treating the series as proof of analytical depth.

The post says this applies to the majority of companies in monopolistically competitive markets and asks whether companies have a sound pricing decision-making process and understand both its flaws and its usefulness.

For brands planning a campaign

For a fractional pricing advisor engagement, Tim J Smith’s core point of view is that pricing work should diagnose and improve how decisions are made, not simply impose margin targets. Brands can assess whether that approach fits their decision-making structure.

Examples: Source 1

The post calls pricing the glue that enables discipline across the organization and warns that uncoordinated promotions, brand management, and sales negotiations can distort outcomes. It cites a 1% price improvement as potentially leading to a $12.5 billion market capitalization improvement.

Uses a public-company example and an estimate of market-cap sensitivity to anchor the organizational argument.

The post explicitly says Nike has good management and good managers. The critique is about investing more in pricing capability, not about bad decisions.

For brands planning a campaign

This topic offers a way to assess an organization’s pricing governance. Brands considering advisory work can ask how Tim J Smith would coordinate pricing decisions across functions and what evidence would demonstrate improved discipline.

Examples: Source 1

The post points to a Pricing Spineometer review of Robert Half and offers a 4-day Price Management Maturity and Gap Analysis to reveal pricing capability gaps.

For brands planning a campaign

This packaged diagnostic gives brands a basis for commissioning work or comparing it with their own needs. It also shows Tim J Smith using a current company case to frame pricing as a board concern, useful when preparing an executive-level engagement brief.

Examples: Source 1

The post models a Strait of Hormuz oil supply disruption: short-term oil demand elasticity around -0.05 implies a 20% supply reduction could raise prices by 400% in the short run, while long-term elasticity around -0.3 implies a 67% rise. It also cites copper moving from $9,000 to $14,500 per metric tonne between January 2025 and March 2026.

Applies short- and long-term price elasticity estimates to a supply-disruption scenario and compares the results with a copper price shock.

The oil scenario is conditional on the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed and a pre-war oil price near $80 per barrel. It is presented as preparation, not a certain forecast.

For brands planning a campaign

This demonstrates economic modeling and executive-facing guidance on input-cost shocks. Brands considering advisory work on pricing responses to commodity or supply disruptions can assess Tim J Smith’s approach.

Examples: Source 1

The post describes the format as listening, asking, and talking with an economist and pricing professor.

For brands planning a campaign

This event and speaking format gives brands an opportunity to sponsor or attend, or a model for executive education. It also shows Tim J Smith convening peer discussion around current market conditions, alongside publishing commentary.

Examples: Source 1

For brands planning a campaign

This topic is relevant to professional-services firms and fractional executive audiences. Brands can assess Tim J Smith for a talk or working session on service pricing models, especially when billable-hour models are under review.

Examples: Source 1

The post lists research, the Pricing Spineometer series, another book, part-time teaching at DePaul, and conference speaking as energizing work. It offers to serve companies with $50 million to $500 million in revenue that need pricing work, or CFOs facing price uncertainty, and reports improving profit on a $75 million product line by an additional $60 million through an NPD process and improving profit at a $30 million distributor by $1.8 million with the commercial team.

The client results are self-reported in a LinkedIn post. Ask for case details and third-party verification; the posts name no clients and provide no such verification.

For brands planning a campaign

This offers a picture of the client size and service orientation Tim J Smith targets, along with proof points for brands to verify. Ask for case details and confirm the work before relying on the outcomes.

Examples: Source 1

Their material is text-first and analytical, often addressing CFO, FP&A, VP Pricing, CEO, and CMO roles.

For brands planning a campaign

Brands can consider Tim J Smith for content collaborations, executive webinars, teaching-style workshops, or advisory work using these formats. The recurring series and event format can support an ongoing relationship rather than a one-off post.

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They invite companies seeking pricing work to contact the business and cite profit improvements from past projects. Ask about Smith’s current role at Wiglaf before engaging.

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Ask Nike to confirm any business relationship with Smith before treating the post as evidence of one.

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Ask Robert Half to confirm any business relationship with Smith before treating the post as evidence of one.

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Holm illustrates the point with a customer requalifying a 6,000-plus contact network and the thinking behind Copper GPT.

Holm focuses on CRM usability and product focus for sales teams; Smith covers pricing economics and pricing capability for CFO, FP&A, and pricing audiences.

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Lolk works in ecommerce paid search and product feed optimization for retail accounts; Smith focuses on pricing decisions and input-cost shocks for mid-market companies.

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In a two-company comparison, early demand detection and flexible operations let the agile competitor capture market windows that the industry leader misses.

Sinha focuses on supply chain design, demand sensing, and agility; Smith covers pricing strategy, price management maturity, and service pricing.

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The posts describe CRM design choices that reduce friction: Gmail-native design, fewer clicks, automations tied to pipeline stages, and integrations that match sales-to-production handoffs.

• The Bonfire Labs example shows how to requalify a 6,000-plus contact network without slowing the creative team.
• For a client whose sales team does not use its CRM, this is more directly relevant than pricing content.

The tradeoff is that the posts do not address pricing decisions, margin management, or price-setting frameworks. Choosing Steve Holm for a fractional pricing advisor engagement would leave the core pricing problem unaddressed; ask Tim J Smith for their pricing-specific method, such as treating margins as a result of pricing decisions and coordinating pricing across functions.

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The posts show detailed work on product feed titles, brand placement, and tROAS targets.

• The dog food and accessories example shows how splitting a portfolio by category can stop one category from losing spend, with Denmark spend up about 88% and Sweden weekly net profit moving from -4,574 kr to +28,243 kr.
• If the client needs to fix feed structure or paid search budget allocation, this is more directly applicable.

The tradeoff is that the posts do not cover pricing strategy, price setting, or margin management.

• They focus on advertising spend and feed structure, which can affect revenue but do not replace a pricing decision framework.
• For a fractional pricing advisor engagement, Andrew Lolk's content would not answer core questions about how to set and coordinate prices.

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Rakesh Sinha would be a better choice if the engagement focuses on supply chain agility and demand sensing rather than pricing.

• The posts describe a method for reducing demand latency: sensing actual consumer demand at a granular level, synchronizing supply actions, and using that insight to capture short windows of opportunity.
• The example of company A versus company B shows how faster detection and flexible operations can accelerate revenue.
• If the client's problem is stockouts, surplus inventory, or a slow response to demand shifts, this is more directly relevant.

The tradeoff is that the posts do not cover pricing decisions, price setting, or margin management.

• Supply chain agility can affect costs and availability, which are inputs to pricing, but it does not provide a pricing decision process.
• For a fractional pricing advisor engagement, ask Tim J Smith for their pricing-specific method, such as the Price Management Maturity and Gap Analysis or the margin-as-outcome argument.

Examples: Source 1 · Source 2