Keyan Bazargan

The provider gets a reduced version; the rate card handed to the brand is reduced again.

• They call this managing cost and service on a summary of a summary.
• Their reasoning is that this used to be an acceptable tradeoff because most teams could not use a full carrier feed.
• But modeling, software, and AI increasingly reward data completeness, making a partner that cannot give a brand full access to its own shipping data a supply chain risk rather than a minor inconvenience.
• They make a parallel argument about reporting: 3PLs vary widely, from detailed reporting and API access to PDF invoices with no real cost breakdown.
• The old case for withholding data in the name of simplicity has weakened because brands can now process it.

The full record includes billed dimensional weight, the zone assigned, each accessorial and surcharge, discounts at every weight and zone break, and post-billing adjustments. The brand receives only a summary.

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They conclude that the choice set is genuinely large and confusing, and that without a dedicated RFP process a brand is very likely to overpay or end up with partners that do not match its shipping profile.

DHL eCommerce is Bazargan's example of a consolidator: it manages pickup, consolidation, sort, and linehaul, then hands off to USPS for local sorting and the final leg. They later examine DHL's $10 billion-plus exclusive commitment to USPS as the price of giving up that flexibility: committing volume buys better rates but removes the ability to move packages to a regional carrier such as Veho, UniUni, or OnTrac when market economics favor it.

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Coastal sites (Los Angeles, Savannah) are close to ports for cheaper inbound costs but carry higher average final-delivery distance and more expensive real estate and operating costs.

• Midway sites (Utah, Tennessee) cost slightly more inbound but run cheaper and ship shorter final miles.
• Central sites (Kansas) have the highest inbound costs, the cheapest operations, and the shortest final delivery distances.

Bazargan's stated method is to run a full cost analysis plus a gut check, because the right answer depends on the brand's manufacturing location and the specific rate cards involved.

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Their team pushes to identify and clear the blocker immediately.

• The reasoning is arithmetic: savings only start once the program is live, so every week of scheduling slack is profit the client never collects, and the effect compounds across the hundreds of touchpoints in an engagement.
• They are explicit that this is not a case for recklessness.

A program saving a client $500,000 a year is worth roughly $1,400 a day once live, so two months of slack between kickoff and a live carrier is about $80,000 of profit never collected—the margin on a few hundred extra orders with none of the acquisition or fulfillment cost.

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They consider a fulfillment and delivery evaluation worthwhile regardless of the answer, because it either finds money or confirms the current setup is sound.

Bazargan gives four cases.

• A brand suspected it was overpaying, but its rates were already highly competitive.
• A fast-growing brand approaching a 3PL renewal had a solid proposal on the table.
• A brand worried about freight from manufacturer to 3PL found per-unit costs reasonable.
• A CPG brand looking for a new DTC 3PL was advised to first ask its existing wholesale 3PL to handle DTC, keeping the supply chain simpler.

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They argue for reviewing several levers together instead of chasing a single saving, and group them into 3PL fulfillment, manufacturing, and last mile.

For 2026 planning, Bazargan lists 3PL fulfillment factors including one node versus two, specialization, location, and switching costs; manufacturing factors including country of origin, product expansion, cost reduction, and payment terms; and last-mile factors including linehaul, national carriers, regional carriers, and specialty carriers. They offer a short tip guide on making decisions for each lever.

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Speed, cost, and claims describe the shipment, while complaints capture only customers angry enough to write in.

• The silent detractor is more common than the angry customer, ordering less often or never again without saying why.
• They argue that measurement is feasible if a brand connects the right datasets, and that the post-purchase experience is part of the delivery decision, not a separate concern.

Bazargan says the calculation can be done by marrying Shopify order data with shipping data, normalizing for geography, shipping tier, and customer tenure. They also describe building a tracking app because many clients use multiple carriers and want a consistent tracking experience for customers regardless of which carrier handles the parcel.

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Keyan Bazargan divides the U.S. last-mile market into four national carriers with large networks (UPS, FedEx, USPS, Amazon); regional, venture-backed carriers with selective metro and parcel coverage (Ontrac, Veho, UniUni, GLS, SpeedX); and consolidators or resellers that manage part of the journey.

• DHL eCommerce and USPS illustrate the model: DHL handles pickup, consolidation, sorting, and linehaul, then hands off to USPS for local sorting and final delivery.
• 3PLs, label software, and platforms like Shopify also act as consolidators.
• Without a dedicated RFP process, brands are very likely to overpay or choose partners that do not fit their shipping profile.

For brands planning a campaign

For a DTC parcel-cost brief, compare national, regional, and consolidator options separately, then require an RFP instead of defaulting to an existing carrier or 3PL.

When a brand ships through a 3PL or TMS, the carrier holds the full charge-level record: billed dimensional weight, assigned zone, each accessorial and surcharge, discounts at weight and zone breaks, and post-billing adjustments.

• The provider receives a reduced version, and the rate card given to the brand is reduced again.
• Keyan Bazargan calls this managing cost and service using “a summary of a summary.”
• That tradeoff once made sense because teams could not use a full carrier feed.
• Now, software and AI make data completeness a direct driver of answer quality.
• The post frames a partner’s inability to provide full access to a brand’s own shipping data as a supply chain risk, not a minor inconvenience.

For brands planning a campaign

For a brand choosing a 3PL, make charge-level data and API access explicit RFP requirements. Focus the campaign on data transparency as a cost-control issue, not just a reporting feature.

DHL eCommerce committed to USPS as its sole final-mile carrier in a long-term exclusive agreement worth more than $10 billion.

• Keyan Bazargan contrasts that with the typical consolidator model, which relies on USPS for reach while retaining the option to use a regional carrier such as Veho, UniUni, or OnTrac when market economics favor it.
• DHL gives up that flexibility.
• The price tradeoff makes sense: committing years of volume gives USPS certainty and likely gives DHL pricing it could not secure in a shorter, non-exclusive deal.
• The cost is optionality.
• If USPS has network-resiliency problems during the term, or alternative final-mile carriers become more competitive, DHL cannot pivot.
• For shippers, the practical takeaway is that if DHL eCommerce is in the carrier mix, locked-in USPS economics at that scale should help DHL keep pricing competitive for brands and 3PLs routing through it.

For brands planning a campaign

Use this as a teachable example in carrier-mix evaluation: quantify the value of rate certainty against the loss of flexibility and resilience risk.

Keyan Bazargan groups 3PLs into three location types.

• Coastal 3PLs, such as those in Los Angeles or Savannah, are close to ports, reducing inbound costs, but have higher average final-delivery shipping distances and more expensive real estate and operating costs.
• Midway 3PLs, such as those in Utah or Tennessee, have slightly higher inbound costs, cheaper real estate and operating costs, and lower average final-delivery distances.
• Central 3PLs, such as those in Kansas, have the highest inbound costs, cheaper real estate and operating costs, and the lowest average final-delivery distances.
• The right choice depends on manufacturing location and specific rate cards, so the post recommends a full cost analysis and gut check.

For brands planning a campaign

For a fulfillment-cost brief, compare 3PL nodes on inbound-versus-outbound tradeoffs instead of treating location as a generic preference.

Carrier RFPs drag.

• The industry default is often to accept a meeting next Wednesday, even when a two-minute email or five-minute call could clear the blocker.
• Keyan Bazargan urges teams to identify the blocker and clear it now.
• The math: a program saving a client $500,000 a year saves about $1,400 a day once live.
• Two months of slack between kickoff and a live carrier means $80,000 in profit the client never collects—the margin on a few hundred extra orders without acquisition or fulfillment cost.
• Across hundreds of touchpoints, the time saved adds up, and savings hit the P&L weeks earlier.

For brands planning a campaign

For a brand campaign, focus on clearing blockers quickly and quantifying the cost of delay, not just negotiating rate cards.

Some 3PLs give brands full data transparency; others do not.

• Keyan Bazargan describes wide variation between 3PLs that provide detailed reporting and API access and those that offer only PDF invoices with no meaningful cost breakdown.
• Brands should work with supply chain partners that surface as much data as possible.
• Vendors once had a case for keeping things simple to avoid overwhelming brands with data.
• But LLMs have changed that: brands want and need all the data because they can now process and understand it.

For brands planning a campaign

Pair this with the rate-data post to build a 3PL RFP criterion around reporting depth and API access.

Almost no one measures lifetime value by carrier.

• Speed, cost and claims describe the shipment; complaints capture customers angry enough to write in.
• But silent detractors are more common: they do not complain, they simply order less often or never again.
• Keyan Bazargan says brands can calculate this by combining Shopify and shipping data, while normalizing for geography, shipping tier, customer tenure and similar variables.

For brands planning a campaign

For a DTC brand, propose an analysis linking carrier performance to repeat-purchase behavior. Frame the campaign around retention and customer experience, not just parcel cost.

Keyan Bazargan gives four examples.

• One brand wondered if it was overpaying for shipping, but its rates were already highly competitive.
• A fast-growing brand was approaching a 3PL renewal, and the proposal on the table was solid.
• Another brand was concerned about freight costs from manufacturer to 3PL, but the costs were reasonable per unit.
• A CPG brand was searching for a new 3PL for DTC fulfillment; Bazargan recommended first asking its wholesale 3PL to handle DTC and keep the supply chain simpler.
• The stated goal is to empower brands with information and work with them only when it makes sense for both parties.

For brands planning a campaign

For a brand brief, this supports an objective audit angle: the evaluation can conclude that no change is needed, making the offer easier to trust.

Drawing on personal brand-side experience and dozens of audits, Keyan Bazargan says many parcel shippers, typically ecommerce brands and fulfillment centers, pay above market value.

• The reasons often include excessive markup, too many layers of markup or a carrier that is not the best fit.
• Parcel shippers have little visibility into their market value, and market dynamics change constantly.
• Unlike other cost categories such as overseas freight, last-mile delivery data is not straightforward to interpret.
• Iron Margin is presented as a way for parcel shippers without market data and current niche domain knowledge to optimize one of their biggest cost categories.

For brands planning a campaign

Position Keyan Bazargan for brands that suspect shipping markups or a poor carrier fit. The campaign angle is an audit against current market value, not a generic cost-cutting pitch.

Reducing COGS enables a flywheel effect: more profit means more money for inventory, product development and marketing.

• For 2026 ops changes, Keyan Bazargan lists 3PL fulfillment factors including one node versus two nodes, specialization, location and switching costs; manufacturing factors including country of origin, product expansion, cost reduction and payment terms; and last-mile factors including linehaul, national carriers, regional carriers and specialty carriers.
• The post offers a short tip guide to making good decisions for each lever.

For brands planning a campaign

Use this as campaign framing for a COGS-reduction series or lead magnet, tying each lever to a specific evaluation step.

Keyan Bazargan says the team built a tracking app because many clients use multiple carriers and want to provide customers with a consistent tracking experience. The post notes five stars on the Shopify App store and points to the website for more information.

For brands planning a campaign

For a brand evaluating Keyan Bazargan, this points to a software product for multi-carrier shipping. It may support a partnership angle around post-purchase tracking or customer experience.

They argue that the choice set is genuinely large and, without a dedicated RFP process, brands are likely to overpay or end up with partners that do not match their shipping profile.

For brands planning a campaign

Useful for a brand brief on re-examining carrier mix: it maps who does what and makes the case for a structured RFP rather than defaulting to an incumbent.

Examples: Source 1 · Source 2

Brands end up managing cost and service on 'a summary of a summary.' They say that tradeoff used to be reasonable but no longer is: software and AI modeling reward data completeness, making a partner that cannot provide full access to a brand's own shipping data a supply chain risk rather than a minor inconvenience. A related post contrasts 3PLs that offer detailed reporting and API access with those that still send only PDF invoices with no real cost breakdown, and argues LLMs have removed the old case for withholding data in the name of simplicity.

For brands planning a campaign

Evaluate candidate vendors on data access: charge-level records, API availability, and whether the brand retains its own carrier data. A campaign brief can make demonstrating that access a selection criterion.

Examples: Source 1 · Source 2

Coastal sites are close to ports, lowering inbound costs, but average final-delivery distance is higher and real estate and operating costs are more expensive.

• Midway sites pay slightly more inbound but have cheaper operating costs and shorter final miles; central sites have the highest inbound costs but the cheapest operations and shortest final-delivery distances.
• They recommend a full cost analysis and gut check because the right answer depends on manufacturing location and the specific rate cards involved.

Run a full cost analysis and gut-check it against the brand's manufacturing location and rate cards rather than choosing a region by rule of thumb.

For brands planning a campaign

Gives a brand a concrete framework for shortlisting fulfillment partners by network position and requiring cost modeling across a candidate's node footprint, rather than comparing headline rates.

Examples: Source 1

They put numbers on the cost of slack: a program saving a client $500,000 a year is worth roughly $1,400 a day once live, so two months of delay between kickoff and a live carrier means about $80,000 of profit never collected — equivalent to the margin on a few hundred extra orders with none of the acquisition or fulfillment cost. They add that across hundreds of touchpoints in an engagement, the compression compounds, though they are explicit that this is not a case for recklessness.

For brands planning a campaign

For a brand weighing a carrier or 3PL change, timing is a measurable line item. A campaign angle can focus on capturing savings earlier rather than only on the eventual rate.

Examples: Source 1

Their framing is that the job is to empower brands with information and that they only want to work together when it makes sense for both parties — including recommending against a change.

In one case, Bazargan advised a brand not to switch 3PLs, recommending it consolidate DTC with its existing wholesale provider instead.

For brands planning a campaign

Lets a brand scope an evaluation as a check with a possible 'no change' outcome, useful for setting internal expectations and judging whether an advisor is prepared to say the incumbent is fine.

Examples: Source 1

They list the levers they would review for 2026 planning.

• Under 3PL fulfillment: one node versus two, specialization, location, and switching costs.
• Under manufacturing: country of origin, product expansion, cost reduction, and payment terms.
• Under last mile: linehaul, national carriers, regional carriers, and specialty carriers.
• They offer a short tip guide on making good decisions on each lever to people who request it.

For brands planning a campaign

Suggests sequencing several cost levers rather than chasing a single rate cut, fitting a brand brief that spans fulfillment, manufacturing, and delivery costs.

Examples: Source 1

The metrics teams do track — speed, cost, claims — describe the shipment, while complaints capture only customers angry enough to write in.

• Silent detractors are more common than angry customers: they do not complain, they just order less often or never again.
• They say the calculation can be done by joining Shopify and shipping data, with normalization for geography, shipping tier, customer tenure, and similar factors.

Join Shopify order data with shipping data and normalize for geography, shipping tier, and customer tenure before comparing carriers.

For brands planning a campaign

Gives a brand a measurement task to hand to a vendor or analyst, and a campaign angle built on carrier-level LTV rather than delivery speed alone.

Examples: Source 1

They say shippers struggle to know their market value as market dynamics shift and last-mile delivery data is harder to interpret than other cost categories, such as overseas freight. Their business, Iron Margin, gives shippers market data and current niche knowledge to optimize a major cost category.

For brands planning a campaign

Frames the cost-review use case directly: a brand can ask for a benchmark of its parcel rates against the current market and a breakdown of where markup accumulates.

Examples: Source 1 · Source 2

They cite a five-star rating on the Shopify App store and point to the company website for details. The post focuses on the post-purchase experience, not just carrier costs.

For brands planning a campaign

Relevant to brands whose carrier mix splits the tracking experience. A campaign could evaluate the tracking layer alongside rates and data access as part of the same delivery review.

Examples: Source 1

Their specific relationship with the service is unstated; ask whether they own, work for, or consult for it.

View example

The post does not disclose a sponsorship or formal partnership with Shopify.

View example

The audience is the same: e-commerce shippers looking for the line item that actually moves behind a headline number.

Robinson's center of gravity is what happens after shipment: automated claims recovery, carrier rate news, and knowing your effective increase before a negotiation.

• Bazargan works earlier in the decision, on carrier and 3PL selection, data access, and cost-of-goods sequencing.
• They argue that an evaluation may properly end in no change.

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Gulati writes as a fulfillment provider, describing how its carrier relationships, shipping volume, and logistics arm absorb volatility so merchants avoid surcharges, and pairs that with an automation-and-AI product story. Bazargan writes as an outside advisor, urging brands to benchmark, audit, and renegotiate — the buyer's counterpart to Gulati's vendor view.

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The customs and HS-code posts cover duties, tariff items, and landed cost: the parts of cross-border parcel economics that sit alongside Bazargan's domestic cost work. For cross-border work, ask for dedicated examples.

Amalfitano focuses on cross-border compliance: Canadian counter-tariffs, USMCA treatment, EU low-value parcel duty, and getting one HS code, origin, and description per SKU right before peak.

• Bazargan focuses on domestic carrier, 3PL, fulfillment, and rate-data economics.
• For cross-border work, ask for dedicated examples.

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Robinson walks through a carrier general rate increase that is not the headline number: FedEx published 5.9% for 2027, but five of seven domestic services rose faster, accessorials average 6.79%, and 1–5 lb ground parcels are up 6.49%.

• The same roundup explains a geography change, with roughly 2,500 zips moved from Extended to Remote and the residential surcharge going from $8.80 to $17.75, and notes UPS zip tiers matching almost exactly.
• Robinson also documents claims recovery at volume: a national retailer captured more than $470,000 in loss-and-damage payments in sixteen weeks, about $29,000 a week, after more than 13,000 claims were filed across USPS, FedEx, and UPS in a quarter.
• If the need is "our effective rate is not the headline rate and we are leaving carrier money unclaimed," this is closer to that decision than a carrier-fit and 3PL audit.

Robinson's posts focus on carrier pricing, accessorials, delivery-area geography, tariffs, peak surcharges and automated claims filing.

• They do not cover 3PL location tradeoffs (coastal, midway, central), one-node versus two-node economics, inbound freight from manufacturer to 3PL, contract markup layers, carrier-level lifetime value or an evaluation that can end in a documented no-change recommendation.
• Brands weighing the full fulfillment and contract decision will get less from Robinson's posts than from Bazargan's.

Examples: Source 1 · Source 2

Gulati shows how diesel moves parcel and freight costs: FedEx Ground fuel surcharge rising from about 21.75% at $3.71 per gallon to about 25% at $4.86 per gallon, and freight fuel going from about $0.51 to $0.74 per mile, roughly $230 more on a 1,000-mile load.

• Gulati also describes operating-side capabilities, including ShipBob AI, an MCP connector verified in Claude with read and write access, and an in-dashboard agent.
• These details help brands assess a 3PL's technology and operating depth alongside cost.

The vantage point is a fulfillment provider's, so the material focuses on cost mechanics and capability description rather than an independent audit of what a brand currently pays.

• For a provider-agnostic parcel and 3PL cost audit, ask for the brand's own rate cards benchmarked against the market, carrier comparisons for the same buyer decision, 3PL location modeling and a carrier RFP.
• Bazargan's approach is a better fit for that work.

Examples: Source 1 · Source 2

Amalfitano works through tariff and customs data: Canada's counter-tariffs on C$27.6 billion of US goods at 15%, 25% or 50% depending on product, with no USMCA/CUSMA exemption and a transit window before the deadline; and the EU's €3 duty on low-value parcels applied per tariff heading, plus the EU Customs Data Hub becoming mandatory for e-commerce on 1 July 2028. For landed cost, duty exposure, HS classification accuracy, DDP pricing into Canada and the EU, or customs queries, this is the better match.

Amalfitano's posts focus on trade compliance, not domestic parcel economics. For a decision about lowering domestic last-mile and fulfillment costs, ask for analysis of US carrier rate cards, accessorials, the 3PL footprint, carrier RFPs and carrier-level retention measurement.

Examples: Source 1 · Source 2