William Edwards writes GeoWizard, a newsletter explaining how energy prices, trade policy and geopolitical shifts affect global supply chains and business costs.
William Edwards is most useful for concise explanations of how energy, trade and geopolitics affect cross-border supply chains and business costs.
Best for
A global logistics company expanding into volatile energy and trade markets fits their editorial focus.
Not for
A U.S. consumer campaign about gasoline prices does not fit their cross-border B2B framing.
Key takeaways
Edwards argues diesel, not crude or gasoline, is the fuel that decides global inflation.
Concentration is fragility: when one supplier carries the market, speculation alone moves prices.
Trade agreements are supply-chain decisions because they cover energy, critical minerals, digital rules and investment.
Check first: Confirm recent follower geography, audience survey data and results for comparable topics.
Main ideas
Diesel, not crude or gasoline, is the fuel that decides how much global inflation sticks · Concentration is the real fragility: when one supplier carries the market, speculation alone moves prices · China's capital is not retreating, it is being redirected
William Edwards writes GeoWizard, a newsletter about how energy prices, trade policy and geopolitical shifts affect global supply chains and business costs.
Their posts connect headlines to practical consequences: one traces diesel prices to freight and food inflation; another links energy costs and concentrated trade to differing growth prospects; a third treats trade agreements as decisions about companies’ access to markets and resources.
Follow their work for concise explanations that bring together energy, trade and business risk rather than treating each as a separate news story.
Edwards makes economic and policy developments concrete by showing the business mechanisms behind them.
In their diesel post, country-level price increases support the argument that fuel used in freight and agriculture can matter more to operating costs than the gasoline price most readers watch.
Their roundup shows how the possibility of a U.S. diesel-export ban can move prices through supplier concentration, even before a policy decision.
Their trade-agreement post applies the same lens to market access, resources and supply chains.
The three posts offer concise arguments and a newsletter roundup for readers seeking to understand why developments matter to cross-border business.
William Edwards writes GeoWizard, a biweekly global business newsletter that treats energy, trade policy and geopolitics as supply-chain problems rather than news stories.
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The posts return to four priorities: diesel sets freight and food costs even though gasoline gets the attention; extreme concentration in a single supplier or country leaves prices vulnerable to speculation; modern trade agreements determine who gets access to resources and markets; and productivity separates economies that absorb the same shock from those that buckle under it. The writing is short, figure-led and ends with a direct question, making the argument easy to follow and easy to argue with.
Diesel, not crude or gasoline, is the fuel that decides how much global inflation sticks
William Edwards argues that anyone sourcing, shipping or operating across borders is exposed to diesel in a way the usual oil-price coverage misses.
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Most of the world's vehicle fleet and virtually all freight and agricultural equipment run on diesel.
The economies hit hardest are import-dependent ones, where diesel is the backbone of transport and farming.
Gasoline, the fuel most people watch, moves less and matters less to freight.
The post reports a U.S. national average diesel price of $5.85 a gallon, above the previous record of $5.816 set in June 2022 and up from $3.71 a year earlier — nearly 58% — while gasoline rose about 39%, from $2.98 to $4.15. Year-on-year diesel increases are listed for the Philippines (above 120%), Nigeria (roughly 86%), Malaysia (nearly 60%) and Australia, Vietnam and Singapore (40–50%).
Concentration is the real fragility: when one supplier carries the market, speculation alone moves prices
A recurring argument is that the danger lies less in any single event than in how few hands the market rests in.
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When one supplier holds a large share of an export market, even an unconfirmed policy rumour can trigger a price shock.
The same logic applies to container exports and capital flows.
For cross-border businesses, the practical task is to map and price concentration risk, not assume it away.
Talk of a possible U.S. ban on diesel exports — no decision, no announcement — was enough to push European diesel margins above $10 a gallon, with global tanker rates running almost six times higher than in January.
The post also notes that 40% of all global container exports come from one country.
The U.S. supplies about one fifth of the world's exported diesel.
China's capital is not retreating, it is being redirected
Rather than read declining Chinese investment in the United States as withdrawal, William Edwards frames it as redirection — a shift at least as important for supply chains and trade blocs as any tariff headline.
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The flow still exists at record scale; it is simply going elsewhere, changing which markets and partners gain priority access.
The newsletter edition cites a record $214 billion in Chinese overseas investment last year, of which less than 1% went to the United States, alongside the 40%-of-global-container-exports figure.
Trade agreements are now supply-chain decisions, not diplomacy
Modern deals increasingly cover energy, critical minerals, digital rules and investment alongside tariffs, William Edwards argues.
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They quietly determine whether the reader's company or a competitor gets priority access to resources and markets. What looks like diplomacy is really a decision about a company's supply chain, and market access can disappear quickly.
Canada is the case study: a fast-tracked trade pact with India, an EU invitation to become its first "associate member", and 50% U.S. tariffs illustrate how quickly access can change. The post refers to a graphic showing the shift; ask for it if the visual is important to your review.
The same shocks produce different outcomes, and productivity is what separates resilience from stagnation
William Edwards sets rising energy costs against surprisingly firm global growth and attributes the gap to productivity rather than luck.
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Economies hit by the same energy and trade disruption diverge based on how productive they are, which is why one outlook is raised while another is cut.
That leaves a tension with the diesel warning: costs are climbing, yet growth held up.
Edwards resolves it with the same argument.
The OECD raised its global growth forecast, the U.S. is expected to grow roughly twice as fast as other advanced economies, and Canada's outlook was cut because of weak productivity. The newsletter closes by asking readers whether the bigger risk to global growth is energy costs or the concentration of trade in too few hands.
No publication dates are available for the three posts, so no claim about how the argument changed over time can be made from this material.
Start here to see how William Edwards turns one commodity number into a supply chain argument.
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The post asks which fuel sets freight and food costs, and why it matters more than the price everyone watches.
The post argues that diesel—not crude oil or gasoline—drives freight costs, food inflation and margins across most global markets.
It reports the U.S. national average diesel price reaching a record $5.85 a gallon, above the previous high of $5.816 set in June 2022, and up from $3.71 a year earlier—roughly 58%.
Gasoline also rose, but by less: about 39%, from $2.98 to $4.15.
Outside the United States, the post says, most vehicles and almost all freight and farm equipment run on diesel.
It lists year-over-year increases of over 120% in the Philippines, around 86% in Nigeria, nearly 60% in Malaysia, and 40–50% in Australia, Vietnam and Singapore.
Its closing point: diesel is unglamorous and rarely leads headlines, yet may determine how much of this inflation persists.
For brands planning a campaign
For a logistics company weighing expansion into volatile markets, this offers a ready-made way to explain why freight quotes move for reasons beyond headline oil prices. Country-by-country diesel increases can anchor a risk briefing that separates fuel-price risk from broader economic risk.
This is the clearest example of the recurring format: a short sweep through energy, trade and geopolitics, ending with a question for readers.
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Open it to see whether the breadth and framing suit the decisions you need to make.
Framed as the 170th edition of the GeoWizard biweekly global business update newsletter, the post opens with a possible U.S. ban on diesel exports, which was only under discussion—no decision, no announcement—yet European diesel margins reportedly jumped to a record above $10 a gallon.
The post attributes the move to concentration: the U.S. supplies about one fifth of the world's exported diesel, so speculation alone can move prices.
Tanker rates are said to be almost six times higher than in January.
Meanwhile, the OECD raised its global growth forecast, with the U.S. expected to grow about twice as fast as other advanced economies, while Canada's outlook was cut over weak productivity.
The post then turns to China: 40% of global container exports come from one country, and China made a record $214 billion of overseas investment last year, of which less than 1% went to the United States.
It ends by asking readers whether energy costs or concentrated trade pose the bigger risk to growth.
For brands planning a campaign
Useful for a client conversation that needs to connect fuel prices, shipping costs and investment flows on one page. The closing question offers a low-effort way to open a dialogue with prospects without pitching a service directly.
Start here to see how William Edwards frames policy news as a supply chain decision rather than a diplomatic story.
The post argues that modern trade deals increasingly cover energy, critical minerals, digital rules and investment—not just tariffs—and quietly decide who gets priority access to resources and markets.
Canada is the case study: a fast-tracked trade pact with India, an EU invitation to become its first "associate member," and 50% U.S. tariffs illustrate how quickly market access can change.
The conclusion is direct: what looks like diplomacy is really a decision about a company's supply chain.
For brands planning a campaign
A clear hook for advisory content aimed at importers and exporters: reframe a trade headline as a sourcing question and show clients what to check first. The Canada example gives the conversation a concrete, current case.
Diesel and energy costs across global freight markets
William Edwards tracks diesel specifically, not crude or gasoline, as the fuel driving freight, food and agricultural costs because most of the world's freight fleet and farming equipment runs on it.
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One post gives a U.S. national average record of $5.85 a gallon, up nearly 58% year on year, against gasoline at about $4.15 a gallon, up 39%.
Outside the U.S., they list year-on-year diesel increases such as the Philippines above 120%, Nigeria around 86%, Malaysia nearly 60%, and Australia, Vietnam and Singapore at 40–50%, all in import-dependent economies where diesel is the backbone of transport and farming.
Their conclusion: diesel, more than crude or gasoline, may decide how much of global inflation sticks.
Country-level price benchmarks paired with a causal chain linking war-driven supply shortages, refining capacity and import dependence.
For brands planning a campaign
Useful for fuel, freight, logistics, industrial and food-supply brands that need buyer-facing material on cost pass-through and margin pressure. A campaign could turn the country-by-country diesel figures into a procurement or hedging checklist.
In a post on trade policy, William Edwards argues that modern agreements are no longer only about trade: they increasingly cover energy, critical minerals, digital rules and investment, and quietly decide who gets priority access to resources and markets.
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They use Canada as the case study: a fast-tracked trade pact with India, an EU invitation to become its first associate member, and 50% U.S. tariffs show how quickly market access can disappear. The framing line: what looks like diplomacy is really a decision about a company's supply chain.
A single-country case study that turns a policy headline into an operational question for cross-border businesses.
For brands planning a campaign
Relevant for trade compliance, customs, legal, market-entry and sourcing brands. A campaign could map a specific client's exposure across energy, minerals and digital provisions in pending agreements.
Concentration and redirection of trade and capital
A recurring concern in the posts is concentration: the U.S. supplies one fifth of the world's exported diesel, and 40% of all global container exports come from one country.
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William Edwards illustrates the fragility: mere speculation about a U.S. diesel export ban pushed European diesel margins above $10 a gallon while global tanker rates ran almost six times higher than in January. On capital, they report a record $214 billion in Chinese overseas investment last year, with less than 1% going to the United States, and read that as redirection rather than retreat.
Pairs a single-supplier statistic with an observed market reaction to make the fragility concrete.
For brands planning a campaign
Suits supply-chain resilience, procurement, trade-risk and diversification consultancies. A brief could map a client's supplier concentration and set scenario triggers for price shocks.
Why similar economies diverge under the same shocks
In the newsletter edition, William Edwards sets rising energy costs against surprisingly firm growth: the OECD raised its global growth forecast, the U.S. is expected to grow roughly twice as fast as other advanced economies, and Canada's outlook was cut because of weak productivity.
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They argue that the same shocks produce very different outcomes, and that productivity separates resilience from stagnation.
A comparative framing of one shock and two national outcomes.
For brands planning a campaign
Relevant to productivity software, automation, operations advisory and workforce brands targeting cross-border operators. A campaign could contrast two economies' responses to the same energy shock to make the case for operational investment.
A numbered biweekly newsletter with a reader question
The recurring GeoWizard biweekly global business update, here in its 170th edition, combines original analysis with a list of further items — a guest editorial on Europe's new supply chain rules, the countries that dominate the fertilizer trade, Google's $15 billion investment in Finland, the India–New Zealand trade pact and the narrowing U.S.–China AI race.
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It closes by asking readers whether the bigger risk to growth is energy costs or the concentration of trade in too few hands.
Newsletter structure: lead analysis, a numbered reading list and a discussion prompt.
For brands planning a campaign
The recurring cadence and direct reader question give a brand a predictable slot for aligned distribution and discussion. Ask for confirmed commercial terms before planning a placement.
William Edwards writes GeoWizard, a trade, energy and supply-chain newsletter published on Substack, and refers to it in the first person as "our Geowizard Substack newsletter."
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Companies such as Google and bodies such as the OECD appear in the posts as subjects of coverage, not as sponsors, clients or partners. The posts mention no sponsorship, affiliate, client or investment relationship; ask for confirmation of any such relationship.
GeoWizard
Owned business
GeoWizard is the newsletter Edwards writes on energy prices, trade policy and supply chains.
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A post calls it "our Geowizard Substack newsletter" and points readers to geowizard.substack.com. Editions are numbered; the 170th is described as a biweekly global business update.
William Edwards publishes GeoWizard, a biweekly global business newsletter, and writes short, figure-led posts that frame energy, trade policy and geopolitics as supply-chain problems.
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Their recurring argument is that the costs and access rules cross-border businesses face are shaped by factors the daily headlines underplay: diesel rather than gasoline sets freight and food costs; extreme concentration in a single supplier or country makes prices fragile to mere speculation; and modern trade agreements quietly decide who gets priority access to resources and markets.
Start with the diesel post for the cost mechanism, then read the 170th GeoWizard edition on how energy costs, growth and Chinese capital fit together, followed by the shorter trade-agreement post for the policy framing.
The newsletter is the clearest way to follow their work: each edition pairs a lead analysis with a numbered reading list and ends with a direct question to readers.
Both write about how tariffs and trade policy affect cross-border business.
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Sherretta reports what was said at Washington and Paris gatherings — the U.S.
Chamber of Commerce chief economist's tariff, immigration and war forecast, and a French-American Chamber summit on tariffs, Ukraine and AI — and draws a position from it.
Edwards draws supply-chain conclusions from trade and energy data.
Sherretta writes as a participant and columnist, recounting events they attend and stating an editorial view.
Edwards works from price and trade statistics, packaging them in a recurring newsletter that ends with a reader question.
Sherretta focuses on U.S.–Europe diplomacy and investment; Edwards on global freight, energy and market concentration.
Both treat a tariff decision as an operational planning problem rather than abstract trade news.
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Arezina pairs the 50% tariffs on Canada with what they mean for the hardware, networking gear and components enterprise IT runs on, and asks whether procurement teams are already modelling tariff contingencies into contract negotiations.
Arezina writes about software asset management, IT asset management and FinOps, with a contract or renewal as the unit of analysis and a procurement audience in mind. Edwards works at the level of a market or trade bloc, using country-level energy and trade data in a newsletter rather than focusing on a single buyer's contract cycle.
Both connect fuel economics to what a business actually pays.
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Gulati explains how the DOE diesel index feeds into FedEx and freight fuel surcharges, showing the move from about 21.75% to about 25% on parcel and from about $0.51 to $0.74 per mile on freight. Edwards tracks the same mechanism from the macro side, where diesel prices drive freight and food inflation.
Gulati writes as an executive of fulfillment company ShipBob, explaining the industry's response and the company's own carrier relationships and AI capabilities to merchants.
Edwards is an independent newsletter analyst covering global trade and energy, with no platform to promote.
Gulati focuses on ecommerce fulfillment operations; Edwards on global trade, energy costs and market concentration.
For a global logistics company expanding into volatile energy and trade markets, William Edwards’s content targets readers who source, ship or operate across borders.
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Three posts cover diesel’s effect on freight and food costs, trade agreements increasingly covering energy and critical minerals, and China’s overseas investment and container exports—a plausible topical match for the campaign.
The posts show a LinkedIn follower count and post topics, but not followers’ geography, job role, employer or seniority.
Ask for a recent geographic breakdown of LinkedIn followers and audience survey results or another documented source for professional attributes.
Also request recent results for comparable topics, depth and formats.
William Edwards's posts do not describe a sponsorship offer, a rate card, or a media kit, so no partnership format can be described.
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What is visible is the channel a brand would sponsor: the GeoWizard newsletter, which Edwards promotes from LinkedIn and hosts on Substack, covering energy costs, diesel and freight pricing, trade agreements, supply chain concentration, and geopolitical risk.
The posts do not provide a partnership inquiry route or disclose an example of a paid partner — the outbound links in those posts point readers to the newsletter itself, not to a sponsorship page.
This is an absence in the posts here, not a claim that Edwards never accepts sponsorships, and a buyer should not assume terms or availability.
To move forward, a brand should ask directly about current newsletter placement options, audience numbers, editorial separation between sponsor content and analysis, and production lead times before building the placement into a campaign schedule.
A global logistics company expanding into volatile energy and trade markets is a strong editorial match for William Edwards.
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Their three posts address the exact decisions the campaign needs to tackle.
One argues that diesel, rather than crude or gasoline, sets freight, food and farming costs, and supports the point with country-level benchmarks: a U.S. national average of $5.85 a gallon, up roughly 58% year on year, against gasoline at about $4.15 and up 39%, plus year-on-year increases above 120% in the Philippines, around 86% in Nigeria, nearly 60% in Malaysia, and 40-50% in Australia, Vietnam and Singapore.
Another reframes trade agreements as supply chain decisions because they now cover energy, critical minerals, digital rules and investment, citing Canada's fast-tracked pact with India, the EU associate-member invitation and 50% U.S. tariffs.
A third makes concentration concrete: the U.S. supplies about one fifth of the world's exported diesel, 40% of global container exports come from one country, and a record $214 billion of Chinese overseas investment last year sent less than 1% to the United States.
For a logistics buyer, this is useful material for cost pass-through, lane risk and diversification conversations, and the recurring biweekly GeoWizard newsletter offers a predictable publishing slot.
Before committing, ask for a recent follower breakdown and any audience survey: the LinkedIn follower count was 16,349 on 10 October 2026, but there is no data on follower geography, job role, employer or seniority.
No sponsorship offer, rate card or media kit appears in the posts, and the outbound links point to the newsletter rather than a sponsorship page.
Confirm placement terms, editorial separation and lead times directly.
When to choose a specialist
A campaign aimed at U.S. consumer drivers around gasoline prices is a poor fit.
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William Edwards argues the opposite of the campaign's premise: gasoline gets the headlines, but diesel drives freight and food costs.
The analysis is aimed at people who source, ship or operate across borders, not commuters.
The posts are B2B and cross-border in framing, with no consumer-facing angle, short-form video or turnaround formats shown—formats a retail fuel or consumer campaign would normally need.
For a campaign aimed at U.S. consumers, ask for audience data showing U.S. consumer reach; only a follower count is available.
No sponsorship offer, rate card, media kit or disclosed paid partner appears in the posts, so availability, pricing and production capacity are unverified.
A brand could still approach the newsletter, but it would be buying an informed cross-border business audience, not a consumer one.
Don't assume consumer reach, fast-turnaround formats or commercial terms from the posts.
A worked campaign example
For a logistics campaign, build a customer-facing briefing around the question the diesel post answers: which fuel actually sets your freight rate, and what would move it next.
The asset is a short risk briefing mapping diesel exposure lane by lane.
Build it in four steps.
First, use the country-level diesel increases from William Edwards's diesel post as the baseline: the U.S. record of $5.85 a gallon and roughly 58% year-on-year rise, and increases above 120% in the Philippines, around 86% in Nigeria, nearly 60% in Malaysia and 40-50% in Australia, Vietnam and Singapore, all economies where diesel carries freight and farming.
Second, overlay the client's own lanes and sourcing countries, marking those in import-dependent markets to show exposure rather than general inflation.
Third, add a trade-policy layer using the agreements post: for each lane, note whether the relevant agreement covers energy, critical minerals, digital rules or investment, since the argument is that those provisions decide priority access rather than tariffs alone.
Fourth, set three observable triggers that would change the recommendation: a sustained diesel move in a named market, a new energy or minerals provision in a pending agreement affecting a lane, and a shift in supplier concentration on any single country.
The trade post's framing line carries the campaign: what looks like diplomacy is a decision about a supply chain.
Publish the briefing for prospects and pair it with a GeoWizard newsletter placement, so the analysis runs alongside a client-facing asset rather than as a one-off post.
Close with the newsletter's own device, a direct question to readers: whether their bigger exposure is fuel cost or supplier concentration.
Use the answers to open account conversations.
The graphic referenced in the trade post is not included, so rebuild any visual for the briefing from the figures rather than reuse it.
Choose Robert Sherretta when a supply chain risk briefing needs a Washington policy read rather than a freight-cost model.
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Both posts recount named events.
One covers a National Economists Club talk in Washington where the U.S.
Chamber of Commerce chief economist defended an optimistic growth forecast despite tariffs.
The author pushes back on the free-trade consensus and cites a Financial Times study that exporters bear the largest share of tariff costs.
The other covers the French American Chamber of Commerce Business Summit 2026 at the French embassy, spanning AI competitiveness, data centres and energy demand, nuclear power and quantum computing.
It notes pre-tariff U.S.-France trade above $160 billion a year.
The combination suits a briefing that needs to state what industry representatives actually claimed and where a dissenting view sits.
The tradeoff is operational depth.
Neither post prices a lane, fuel surcharge or shipment; tariff exposure is treated as political economy, and the strongest material is commentary on forecasts and immigration economics rather than figures a logistics planner can put into a rate card.
The France post is largely a summit agenda, showing where the policy conversation is happening without quantifying the cost to shippers.
Choose George Arezina when a client's volatile-market exposure runs through enterprise IT procurement rather than physical freight.
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One post examines a concrete tariff event: a 50% U.S. tariff on $20 billion of Canadian goods, collapsed trade talks, Canadian retaliation from September 8 covering steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, paper and electronics, and India under a 50% tariff with trimmed GDP forecasts.
It argues that U.S. businesses and consumers absorb the cost rather than foreign exporters.
The post then names the decisions that follow: hardware refreshes, enterprise agreement renewals, and whether procurement, software asset management or vendor management teams are already writing tariff contingencies into contracts.
The second post makes the alliance case against the same tariff, pointing to wildfire support, emergency response and cross-border resource-sharing frameworks.
The cost mechanics stop at contract and renewal planning.
There is no fuel index or per-mile or per-parcel number, and the second post argues from alliance and shared-responsibility framing rather than figures.
A briefing based on this material alone would lack the lane-level quantification a freight cost analysis needs.
Trade policy coverage is narrow: one tariff dispute and one retaliation list, rather than the wider agreement and investment landscape.
Choose Divey Gulati when a briefing for shipping decision-makers needs to show what fuel volatility does to a shipping invoice, line by line, and how a logistics provider responds.
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The first post runs the arithmetic: crude oil climbing from the $60s to roughly $90 a barrel, U.S. on-highway diesel from about $3.71 to $4.86 a gallon, FedEx Ground fuel surcharge moving from roughly 21.75% to 25%—about 3.5 percentage points—and freight fuel surcharges from about $0.51 to $0.74 per mile, or roughly $230 more on a 1,000-mile load, all indexed to the DOE diesel price. The second post shows the mitigation side: an AI layer running across the fulfilment stack, an Anthropic-verified connector in Claude with full read and write access, and an in-dashboard agent that acts on plain-language questions.
The numbers come from a service provider describing its own network.
The post says the provider can absorb fuel surcharges rather than pass them through, citing carrier relationships and shipping volume—a commercially interested claim, not an independent benchmark.
Coverage is limited to one company's parcel, freight and middle-mile operations, so the freight math reflects one provider's surcharge schedules, not a market-wide picture.
Ask for an independent benchmark if the briefing needs to support market-wide conclusions; there is no policy or trade-agreement layer.
