Marcelo Fujimoto

The seasonal scramble that once justified premium pricing and Q1 capacity commitments has weakened. Rates are predictable, but volumes are not: customers still expect capacity during former peak windows, even as the economic signals behind those investments grow inconsistent.

Chinese New Year fell in mid-February 2024, early February 2025, and late February 2026. Rates stayed identical on the same dates, regardless of when the holiday fell.

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Now, rates remain elevated after disruptions clear.

• The issue is not weather severity but tighter baseline capacity: with fewer trucks available, the market has less elasticity when demand surges or supply contracts.
• That changes margin planning, even as customers still expect prices to normalize after disruptions pass.

The rate relief that once followed winter disruptions is no longer materializing, even as customers expect post-disruption pricing to return to normal.

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Carriers invest in capacity they will control five years from now, while forwarders compete for space they need next quarter. Future mega-ships are therefore designed around carrier economics rather than forwarder needs, embedding today's space-allocation problems in tomorrow's fleet.

Carriers are ordering 18,600 TEU ships for delivery in 2029, while freight forwarders struggle to secure space on today's vessels.

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Investors see software automating transactions and assume the intermediary will disappear.

• Fujimoto locates value in coordinating shipments when things go wrong: customs delays, documentation discrepancies, and carrier substitutions.
• The board-level question is not whether technology can automate freight matching, but whether operations create value that is difficult to replicate when problems arise.

A karaoke company's AI white paper wiped billions from freight brokerage stocks on a Thursday. The post says the selloff reflected incomplete information about how freight forwarding works.

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Instead, modular, API-first engines can handle duty calculation, HTS classification, AD/CVD intelligence, document management, and email triage. Forwarders, brokers, shippers, and founders should be able to call an API for an accurate duty calculation rather than spend weeks or months building and maintaining a tariff engine.

The first public tool is a free US import duty calculator for forwarders, customs brokers, and shippers to verify entries and quote landed costs.

• The duty engine is live; HTS classification and AD/CVD intelligence are promised in the next few weeks.
• The launch follows a regulatory shock: the Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs, and Section 122 replaced them overnight.

This is a direct product launch and feedback request, turning the same structural argument into a tool.

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Fujimoto describes building modular, API-first engines for international trade: duty calculation, HTS classification, AD/CVD intelligence, document management, and email triage.

• The first public tool is a free US import duty calculator for forwarders, customs brokers, and shippers to verify entries and quote landed costs.
• The launch is tied to a specific regulatory shock: the Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs, and Section 122 replaced them overnight.

For brands planning a campaign

A collaboration could focus on trade automation rollouts, tariff-change explainers, or behind-the-scenes API development for freight and customs audiences.

Fujimoto argues the selloff was not about AI capability but investor uncertainty over which parts of the logistics value chain are defensible.

• Investors see software automating transactions and assume intermediaries disappear, but they point to the coordination work required when shipments go wrong: customs delays, documentation discrepancies, and carrier substitutions.
• In this view, value lies in managing exceptions that automated systems cannot handle.

For brands planning a campaign

Useful for campaigns on AI risk in freight forwarding, exception management, or the operational limits of automation in trade.

Fujimoto notes that airfreight rates stayed flat across three years even as Chinese New Year moved significantly: mid-February in 2024, early February in 2025, and late February in 2026.

• The traditional pre-holiday rate spike did not follow the calendar.
• They call the result rate predictability without volume predictability, and say customers still expect capacity during windows that used to be peak.

For brands planning a campaign

A starting point for campaigns on airfreight planning data, capacity commitments, or seasonal demand analysis.

Fujimoto observes that trucking rates now hold at elevated levels after weather disruptions clear, rather than snapping back.

• Tighter baseline capacity—fewer trucks available—means less elasticity when demand surges or supply contracts.
• For freight forwarders, the usual margin recovery window after disruptions is not materializing, while customers still expect pricing to normalize.

For brands planning a campaign

Could support campaigns on capacity planning, margin assumptions, or freight technology that helps forwarders manage tighter trucking markets.

Fujimoto points to a planning-horizon mismatch: carriers invest in capacity they will control five years from now, while freight forwarders compete for space they need next quarter.

• The mega-ships entering service by 2029 will be designed around carrier economics, not forwarder needs.
• Today's space-allocation challenges are being encoded into tomorrow's fleet architecture.

For brands planning a campaign

A campaign could focus on ocean freight planning, carrier-forwarder alignment, or how long-term fleet decisions affect near-term shipper options.

The expected pre-holiday rate spike did not follow the holiday calendar.

• That weakens a decades-old planning assumption: the seasonal scramble that justified premium pricing and Q1 capacity commitments has not materialized in the usual way.
• Rates are predictable, but volumes are not, leaving customers expecting old peak-window capacity despite inconsistent economic signals.

Compares calendar dates, then distinguishes price stability from demand certainty.

For brands planning a campaign

A collaboration on trade automation or logistics market analysis could use this topic to show demand-variability modeling, not just rate lookup. It could help forwarders plan capacity when historical seasonality stops being reliable.

Examples: Source 1

The post notes that rates now remain elevated after disruptions clear.

• It attributes this not to weather severity but to structurally tighter baseline capacity, with fewer trucks available and less elasticity when demand or supply shifts.
• For forwarders, that changes margin-planning assumptions: the usual post-disruption rate relief is not arriving, even though customers still expect prices to normalize.

Compares an earlier disruption cycle with current behavior, separating temporary weather effects from baseline capacity.

For brands planning a campaign

This topic can anchor content on capacity risk, margin planning, and exception handling during disruptions, including how automation can support rerouting, tender rejections, or customer pricing conversations.

Examples: Source 1

The post says the disconnect is not about ship size but planning horizons: carriers invest in capacity they will control five years out, while forwarders compete for space they need next quarter. The mismatch means future mega-ships are designed around carrier economics rather than forwarder needs, while today's allocation problems are being built into tomorrow's fleet.

Contrasts two planning horizons to explain a structural imbalance.

For brands planning a campaign

A collaboration could examine tools or analysis that connect long-range capacity signals with near-term booking and allocation decisions. It fits API-first trade infrastructure messaging for forwarders.

Examples: Source 1

The post argues the selloff reflected investor uncertainty over which parts of the logistics value chain are defensible, not AI capabilities.

• Markets see software automating transactions and assume the intermediary disappears; the post argues that value lies in coordinating shipments when things go wrong: customs delays, documentation discrepancies, and carrier substitutions.
• The board-level question is not whether technology can automate freight matching, but whether operations create value that is difficult to replicate when things go wrong.

Uses a market selloff to distinguish perceived AI substitution from operational coordination work.

For brands planning a campaign

This is a strong content angle for distinguishing transaction automation from exception management. Document management, email triage, and trade compliance tools can be positioned as infrastructure for exceptions automated systems cannot handle.

Examples: Source 1

It describes a larger effort to build modular, API-first engines for international trade: duty calculation, HTS classification, AD/CVD intelligence, document management, and email triage.

• The argument is that these non-core but critical shipment functions should not be rebuilt by every logistics company; forwarders, brokers, shippers, and founders should be able to call an API for an accurate duty calculation.
• The duty engine is live, with HTS classification and AD/CVD intelligence promised in the next few weeks.
• The post links the launch to a tariff change after the Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs and Section 122 replaced them overnight, and asks for feedback.

Launch announcement built around a free tool, a modular product roadmap, and a recent regulatory trigger.

A product launch with hashtags and a feedback request, rather than an operational market interpretation.

For brands planning a campaign

This is a direct product-building topic for a collaboration on international trade automation. It supports practical content on API-first trade infrastructure, tariff volatility, landed-cost quoting, and entry verification workflows.

Examples: Source 1

That might mean capacity commitments, margin planning, space allocation, or board-level questions about AI.

• The writing is compact, jargon-light, and focused on one argument per post.
• The product post shifts to a direct launch announcement with hashtags.

Recurring structure that moves from observation to operational consequence.

The product launch post does not follow the market-analysis structure.

For brands planning a campaign

A content collaboration could use the same structure for trade automation: a short market observation, counterintuitive evidence, and a practical product implication for forwarders, brokers, shippers, or trade-tech founders.

Examples: Source 1 · Source 2 · Source 3 · Source 4 · Source 5

Ask whether they own or work for Tandom; the post doesn’t say.

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Both treat exceptions and routine handoffs as the real problem, not the visible form or calculation.

Divyam Goel focuses on operations management, email and work-routing software, and the experience of a failed AI rollout. Marcelo Fujimoto spends more time on freight-rate seasonality, capacity planning, and API-first trade infrastructure.

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Both write for operators adjusting sourcing, customs, or capacity plans when rules change.

Heather Hoover-Salomon covers e-commerce imports, sustainability, and zero-emission fleets through a broad regulatory and compliance lens. Marcelo Fujimoto focuses on forwarder margins, rate mechanics, and building trade software.

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Both bring a builder or operator’s view to the question of which logistics work remains defensible.

Alain Borri frames the argument at the executive and strategy level, focusing on value capture and the future of the TMS software category. Marcelo Fujimoto starts with specific planning mismatches and turns them into modular product infrastructure.

Read original · Original 2

Goel writes from an engineering background that includes payment and marketplace infrastructure, then turns it into a direct question to forwarders about what broke in their last AI rollout. That makes Goel a sharper partner than Fujimoto when the campaign goal is to start a conversation with operators about adoption pain, not explain a market shift.

The posts center on TaskHarmony's product and a founder's build story, so a collaboration would land closer to a product pitch than to Fujimoto's signal-then-operational-takeaway market analysis. Their posts say almost nothing about rates, capacity, tariffs, or trade policy, so a campaign built around market conditions or regulatory change would need a different partner.

Examples: Source 1 · Source 2

The same numbered, sectioned format covers sustainability topics, such as why electric and hydrogen trucks matter for regulatory compliance, fuel and maintenance cost, noise-restricted urban delivery, and driver health, and where charging infrastructure and battery range still limit adoption. Use Hoover-Salomon when readers need the moving parts of a policy or technology shift laid out in order.

The posts date to October 2024, the oldest set among the three alternatives.

• Ask for current examples if the campaign depends on rates, capacity, or automation practice.
• The posts are general explainers with few named companies and no figures, making them easy to read but a weaker fit for content that depends on close analysis of specific shipments or quarterly market conditions.

Examples: Source 1 · Source 2

The posts state a role, a location, and a named newsletter, giving a sponsor a recognizable author with an existing distribution channel and a stated thesis readers can agree or argue with. That fits a brief seeking debate and comment volume from supply chain technology leaders.

The posts are opinion-led theses tied to Sightness and the newsletter, making the commercial association closer and the line between analysis and promotion thinner than with Fujimoto.

• The two September 2026 posts contain no rate, capacity, or tariff data.
• Ask for original market analysis, shipment-level examples, or duty and customs mechanics if the campaign depends on those.

Examples: Source 1 · Source 2