Josh Rapperport

For software companies, they cite annual revenue above $25–50 million as a sign of a winner; for hardtech, major offtake agreements, established financing, and maturing first-of-a-kind facilities. They also raise the possibility that a well-funded company could consolidate struggling Series B businesses into a provider of fuller solutions.

In Rapperport’s first 2025 predictions post, they say capital will concentrate in companies that meet those proof points. They cite Northvolt’s bankruptcy as a warning about the difficulty of scaling a capital-intensive business.

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Weaker climate incentives or regulation could put technologies that still depend on subsidies at risk, while reduced federal oversight could speed up transmission, nuclear projects, and other construction. Faster building could also enable environmentally damaging projects.

In part one of the outlook, Rapperport notes that the Inflation Reduction Act’s spending has reached red districts and that some large oil and gas companies support continued incentives because of their alternative-energy investments. They contrast the risk to technologies still years from commercial scale with the prospect of faster grid transmission and drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

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They leave open whether data centers will run on clean energy or rely largely on natural gas. Their nuclear outlook is similarly qualified: renewed activity is possible, but timelines and regulation remain uncertain.

Part two cites Georgia Power’s forecast of 30 GW of data-center load growth against a 15 GW service footprint for the entire Georgia grid. It also points to the rejected Talen–Amazon interconnection agreement as a regulatory complication for nuclear-powered data-center plans.

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They present software that assists existing teams and connects operational steps as a way to address workforce pressure, productivity, safety, margins, and supply-chain complexity.

For IntuigenceAI, Rapperport describes a process-manufacturing copilot serving engineering teams in downstream oil and gas and chemicals. For Parspec, they describe software matching construction products to project specifications and cite a 50–100% labor-productivity improvement.

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They connect that shift in language to expected government support for infrastructure, energy, transportation, and supply-chain projects.

In part two of the outlook, Rapperport names energy independence and national security as an emerging frame while discussing nuclear, grid growth, and data-center power demand. The post credits Sam Smith-Eppsteiner and Tomás Álvarez Belón.

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Labeled part one, it is the place to start.

Rapperport sets out a two-part prediction series.

• This post covers what changed after the 2020–2024 energy and climate boom.
• The first claim is a shakeout: after a surge in startups, venture firms, and capital, winners should emerge.
• For software-style companies, that means annual revenue north of $25–50M; for hardware-heavy companies, major offtake agreements, established financing, and maturing first-of-a-kind facilities.
• The second prediction is consolidation: a well-funded player buys struggling Series B companies at deflated valuations to assemble a business capable of delivering full solutions.
• On policy, they expect a slowdown, possibly a rollback, of climate regulation and incentives under a new Trump administration and a right-leaning EU parliament.
• They note that the Inflation Reduction Act has sent most of $200B+ to red districts, and that some large oil and gas companies support continued incentives because of their own alternative-energy investments.
• The post argues that policy softening will hit technologies early in de-risking that need subsidies or regulation to pencil, potentially leaving technologies that are roughly a decade from scale unfunded today.
• The post makes the opposite case for building: reduced federal oversight could bring a permitting revolution, faster grid transmission, more openness to nuclear, and environmentally damaging projects such as drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

For brands planning a campaign

For an energy and climate investment thesis briefing, this post offers a compact set of testable positions: capital concentrating in proven technology, consolidation among mid-stage companies, and a regulatory split between early-stage technologies and build-out. Check them against a firm's portfolio and deal pipeline.

Read it after part one for the full thesis.

The post opens with the growth side of the 2025 energy and climate outlook.

• On demand, it argues that AI power consumption is driving unprecedented load growth and expects several major grid operators to double their five-year demand forecasts.
• It cites Georgia Power's forecast of 30GW of load growth for data centers, against an existing 15GW service footprint for the whole Georgia grid.
• It identifies grid optimization and planning, tools to accelerate interconnection, and energy storage as opportunities, while leaving open whether companies will insist on clean energy for these facilities or rely on natural gas.
• On nuclear, it expects retired facilities to restart, big tech to keep announcing nuclear programs for data centers, and fusion to continue advancing.
• It is less certain about how quickly small modular reactors will come online and how FERC will regulate emerging interconnection agreements, citing the rejected Talen–Amazon project.
• The post predicts a shift in messaging from climate and ESG toward energy independence and national security, which it says should keep government support flowing to infrastructure, energy, transportation, and supply chain work.
• It also forecasts a post-SPAC wave of hardtech IPOs, likely led by an energy storage listing, with valuations resting on real-world deployments, manufacturing scale, and commercial commitments.
• Northvolt's bankruptcy filing illustrates how hard it is to scale a capital-intensive company.
• The post closes by naming Sam Smith-Eppsteiner and Tomás Álvarez Belón.

For brands planning a campaign

Use this as the demand-side counterpart to part one. It gives concrete numbers and named regulatory events a research summary can verify or update, and identifies the sectors — grid software, storage, nuclear services, and industrial supply chain — where a thesis briefing can look for portfolio signals.

Rapperport announces they are leading a $10M seed round in IntuigenceAI, described as an AI system of action and copilot for process manufacturing, and credits Moe Tanabian with defining the previous generation of industrial AI.

• The post argues that the biggest AI opportunities lie in physical industries: multi-trillion-dollar markets historically dominated by legacy giants and sector consultants rather than modern software companies because of proprietary unstructured data, complex implementation needs, and distinct cultural dynamics.
• In this account, AI opens white space for flexible, scalable systems with fast time-to-value, which matters as these sectors manage a retiring workforce and rising demand.
• Intuigence is described as starting with downstream oil and gas and chemicals, augmenting chemical, process, controls, and mechanical engineering teams, and improving margins, emissions, and safety.
• The post says the largest industrial operators are turning to it.
• It closes by naming Scott Brady.

For brands planning a campaign

This briefing on where the firm puts money in industrial AI shows the thesis in action. Use it to check whether the stated focus on process manufacturing, oil and gas, and chemicals matches the rest of the portfolio.

Rapperport congratulates Forest Flager, Pratyush Havelia, and the Parspec team on a Series A, noting three years of working with the company and accelerating customer pull.

• The post argues that application-layer vertical AI is transforming legacy industries and that construction is a major opportunity: about $5 trillion of construction materials and products move annually through manufacturers, distributors, sales agents, and contractors.
• Parspec is described as connecting and automating those workflows, improving labor productivity by 50–100%, and identifying products that match complex project specifications so customers can win more business and handle supply chain complexity from inventory to tariffs.
• The new capital is earmarked for AI across the project order lifecycle and a unified digital environment for a more connected supply chain.
• The post notes Mo Islam and Josh Stein of Threshold Ventures joining the effort and includes a shortened link.

For brands planning a campaign

Paired with the Intuigence post, this offers a second example of a repeatable pattern — application-layer AI for fragmented, specification-heavy industrial workflows — and a concrete productivity figure and market size to test against other construction technology investments.

The 2025 edition lays out numbered themes, each with a short argument and named evidence: Georgia Power forecasting 30GW of load growth for data centers on an existing 15GW service footprint for the whole state grid; the Talen-Amazon interconnection agreement rejected in fall 2024; and Northvolt's bankruptcy filing as a caution on capital-heavy scale-up. The growth post credits Sam Smith-Eppsteiner and Tomás Álvarez Belón.

The predictions run as a multi-part series, separating market structure from growth areas. Each theme poses an open question rather than delivering a single verdict.

For brands planning a campaign

A late-year predictions post offers a natural hook for a commentary or data-led campaign. Its numbered structure can double as a client briefing outline.

Examples: Source 1 · Source 2

Software-style companies would need annual revenue north of $25–50M; hardtech winners would need major offtake agreements, established financing, and maturing first-of-a-kind facilities. Capital will concentrate in those companies, and they argue that a well-funded player could acquire struggling Series B companies at deflated valuations and combine them into an industrial conglomerate able to deliver full solutions.

For brands planning a campaign

Useful for framing diligence criteria or a consolidation and serial-acquisition narrative. A brand selling to energy and climate operators can pitch against the "proof of deployment" argument.

Examples: Source 1

It notes that the IRA has sent most of $200B+ so far to red districts, and that some of the largest oil and gas companies support continued incentives because of their own alternative energy investments. Rapperport argues that reduced federal oversight could accelerate building — faster grid transmission and more openness to nuclear — while also opening the door to environmentally damaging projects such as drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

Rapperport sees the policy direction as uncertain and flags early-stage technologies that need subsidies, or regulation of emissive alternatives, as most exposed.

For brands planning a campaign

A policy-sensitive brand can use the "incentives soften, permitting accelerates" frame to explain demand timing, with red-district spending and incumbent support as concrete anchors for a policy briefing.

Examples: Source 1

They point to opportunities in grid optimization and planning, tools that accelerate interconnection, and energy storage. They leave open whether companies will insist on clean energy to supply these facilities or largely rely on natural gas to meet the load.

For brands planning a campaign

A grid, storage, or interconnection vendor can build a demand-narrative campaign around this outlook. The clean-versus-gas question offers a ready-made debate hook for a webinar, report, or interview.

Examples: Source 1

It also flags uncertainty about how quickly small modular reactors will come online and how FERC will regulate emerging interconnection service agreements. Rapperport expects founders and investors to shift their messaging from "climate and ESG" toward "energy independence and national security," while infrastructure, energy, transportation, and supply chain continue to benefit from government support.

For brands planning a campaign

For a nuclear or hardtech brand, this offers a language shift to test — security framing over climate framing — and a list of subsectors where the case still lands with government backing.

Examples: Source 1

Proprietary unstructured data, complex implementation, and distinct cultural dynamics have protected those markets. The IntuigenceAI investment is framed around process manufacturing, starting with downstream oil and gas and chemicals, augmenting chemical, process, controls, and mechanical engineering teams, and addressing a retiring workforce alongside rising demand.

The investment case starts with market structure and buyer pressure, presenting the product as a response rather than the pitch.

For brands planning a campaign

A brand selling AI or software into heavy industry can align with the "flexible, fast time-to-value" argument. Workforce and demand pressures offer concrete buyer motivations to cite.

Examples: Source 1

It describes instantly identifying products that match complex project specifications, helping customers win more business, and navigating supply chain complexity from inventory to tariffs.

For brands planning a campaign

A construction-tech or supply-chain brand gets a quantified market frame and a named productivity claim to benchmark against, useful for category-education content.

Examples: Source 1

The posts name founders and co-investors, describe the product and customer pull, and congratulate the team. They credit individuals including Forest Flager and Pratyush Havelia at Parspec, Moe Tanabian at Intuigence, and investors Mo Islam and Josh Stein of Threshold Ventures.

Milestone posts pair endorsement with product explanation, leading with the founder relationship before the market argument.

For brands planning a campaign

For a brand seeking a warm relationship, the milestone post offers a format to engage with. The brand can offer customer evidence or a deployment story that supports the posts' emphasis on "customer pull".

Examples: Source 1 · Source 2

The post names Moe Tanabian and Scott Brady. Ask which fund made the investment.

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The post notes Threshold Ventures joining the effort. Ask which fund invested and whether Rapperport's side invested.

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Allen’s posts center on building and celebrating Chicago’s hardtech founder community through mHUB and explaining the cost structure behind U.S. reindustrialization. Rapperport writes as an investor about energy and climate market predictions and portfolio company milestones.

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Peev’s posts offer operational project-development guidance and conference takeaways from Sweden and the Nordics. Rapperport’s focus on U.S. venture predictions and investment announcements puts more emphasis on capital allocation and portfolio companies than on project delivery.

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Miller focuses on career paths into venture capital and on Rho Impact and Koi.eco’s climate-solutions data, using mining examples. Rapperport focuses on energy and climate predictions and their portfolio’s industrial AI companies.

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Allen’s posts describe mHUB’s decade of work with physical-product and hardtech founders and analyze why Chinese manufacturing quotes come in lower, covering currency, subsidies, capital access, procurement, environmental costs, IP, scale, vertical integration, and supply-chain density. This is a stronger interview for a thesis on whether domestic hardware supply chains can be rebuilt and where manufacturing cost advantages are real versus policy-created.

Allen’s ecosystem and manufacturing-cost lens does not give marketers Rapperport’s specific 2025 predictions on AI-driven electricity demand, nuclear restarts, interconnection rules, storage, and a post-SPAC hardtech IPO wave. Allen’s posts do not identify a portfolio-investment record, unlike Rapperport’s portfolio signals such as IntuigenceAI or Parspec; ask for details on Allen’s investments.

Examples: Source 1 · Source 2

Peev’s posts walk through Sweden’s wind and solar planning steps, from site selection and environmental permits to financing and grid connection, and report that Sweden rejected 13 Baltic Sea offshore wind projects over defense concerns tied to NATO accession.

• The same posts track China’s renewables share and U.S. capacity growth under the Inflation Reduction Act.
• This is more directly useful for assessing Nordic or EU renewable infrastructure than a U.S. venture portfolio.

A focus on Peev makes the analysis regional and project-development focused, rather than offering Rapperport’s U.S. venture perspective and 2025 market-prediction structure. Peev’s posts discuss digitalization and grid optimization but do not document portfolio companies or an investment allocation record; ask for details on where Peev’s firm is putting capital.

Examples: Source 1 · Source 2

Miller’s posts argue that venture investors need judgment and a point of view, that “every investor is a climate investor,” and that AI cannot supply conviction on a founder or market.

• A second post examines Rio Tinto’s five-year deal to trial bana grass bio pellets as a coal substitute at Gladstone alumina refineries, with early trials replacing 30% of boiler coal and potential Scope 1 cuts of 90,000 tons of CO2e annually.
• This is a stronger fit for assessing how climate capital gets allocated in heavy industry and what can justify conviction.

A focus on Miller misses Rapperport’s forward-looking 2025 predictions and named portfolio-company signals.

• Miller’s posts are partly career advice and partly promotion for Rho Impact and Koi.eco, so marketers should separate the investing framework from the product message.
• Ask for audience and commercial-availability details.

Examples: Source 1 · Source 2